The Gambler: Thursday 27th November 2008.

It's all kicking off in India. Terrorist attacks all over the place. In Thailand the "yellows" have taken over the airport. Zimbabwe Cholera Pandemic, spreading around Southern Africa. In the UK Woolworths and MFI in trouble. No doubt thousands more on the dole by Christmas.

Is there any good news?

Well it sounds like England will be pulling out of their tour of India, so that will save any further embarrassment. Chelsea got a point in Bordeaux, so they should qualify for the next round.

Watching golf on SS1 at the moment.

So what else is new? Nick asked me whether Gordon Brown is a Gambler. I suspect the quick answer to that is YES. All politicians are gamblers. All business people are gamblers. Everyone's a gambler. Life is a gamble. Everytime you make a decision you are a gambler. Even deciding not to make a decision is a gamble.

Elsewhere on the blogosphere, a raging argument is developing on "VALUE". A lot of gamblers/traders base their activity on this vague notion. The argument goes if you think a horse is 6/1, and you can get 8/1 then you are getting VALUE. When the horse trails in last don't worry, at least you got VALUE.

The only VALUE you got was "NO VALUE". The reason you got 8/1 was the horse was not fancied by connections, the jockey could not ride a bike, or the horse woke up with a sore head after one two many barrels of hay the night before.

The price in the market is the price that reflects the chance of the beast winning the race. Why should you or me think we are brighter than the market. It suggests a certain arrogance based on the belief that "I" know better than the trainer, the jockey, the owner, the odds compilers and Uncle Tom Cobley and all. Pride comes before a fall, and bloggers/tipsters that think they are the "bees knees" of the tipping world have a habit of disappearing never to be seen again till they start up a new blog using a different moniker.

The blog is back. That will do for now. Comments welcome.

Todays Blog of the Day:- http://www.gambling-guru.com/