The Gambler

More blast from the pasts:- 31/10/06.

Good Morning. Ended up making about 200 quid yesterday. Mainly on the tennis, and a little bit on  the football. This puts me back in profit for the month, Just about 100 pounds, but a profit is a profit. It would have been a shame, to have spoilt my record for the year. I am quite pleased that I have manged to recover, after an amazingly "Up and Down" October. My main objective for the day, will be to stay in profit for the month.

There is some more tennis on today, live on Sky from 10am. I have to meet up with the Kitchen Designer and Electrician at 11am, so I will not be getting involved in the tennis this morning. I may have a dabble later.

There is some decent horse racing from Exeter today. Denman features in a decent novice chase. Then Racing Demon, Impek, Chilling Place and Dempsey amongst others feature in the Haldon Gold Cup. Both races feature on ATR, so I will try and watch them. I suspect most of this afternoon, I will watch some tennis, hopefully nicking a few quid, to add to this months meagre profit.

This evening we have football. The Champions League. Barcelona entertain Chelsea. My team Chelsea have a decent chance of winning at the Nou Camp. I will not have a bet beforehand, but will try and trade a few pounds profit, to add to the kitty. 1-0 to Chelsea will do very nicely.

Well, onwards and upwards. Tomorrow is the 1st November, so I shall be doing my utmost to get the month off to a decent start. No more "ups and downs" like October. Just some steady profits, to get me to the end of the the month, with a four figure profit would do nicely.

My main ambition for the rest of the year, is to have two more profitable months. Twelve winning months, on Betfair, on the trot, is a reasonable achievement in itself. I shall be content with that, and anything else will be a bonus.

Right chaps and chappesses. That will do for now. If you do have a bet, "Be Lucky". Bye for now.

Sunday Sunday.

Good Morning.

Yesterday watched a bit of sport. Golf. Football. Racing. Rugby. Wales beat Australia. Good game. Surely Wales will win the six nations next year?

Last night. We went to see a play "Hotel Paridiso". We both enjoyed it. Directed by a friend of mine. Very Good. He even had a walk on part where he looked like a cross between "Quasimodo" and that bloke from " 'allo, 'allo ".

Today. Got up early to watch the golf. Kicking myself on two fronts. Stenson and Karlson won easily. 5 shots behind at start of play. I was going to tip them up yesterday but never got round to it. Also I never got round to putting a bet on myself. The 5/1 would have come in quite handy, but there you go.

Later lunch in the local. Then lots of football. United to beat City, and Chelsea to beat Arsenal. And then tonight Dancing. Oh dear. Oh well. Bye for now,

A definition of Value.

Well as the "value merchants" have failed to provide a definition of "value" I have made the effort instead.

 

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The economic value of a good or service has puzzled economists since the beginning of the discipline. First, economists tried to estimate the value of a good to an individual alone, and extend that definition to goods which can be exchanged. From this analysis came the concepts value in use and value in exchange.

Value in use describes what I have to give up to obtain more of a good. I know I will have to reduce my leisure, consumption, savings or investment to obtain more of something. That is the basic trade-off in value.

Value in exchange describes what I have to trade to obtain more of a good, and describes the opportunities available in the market.

Wealth maximization predicts that a person will choose to obtain the good or service in the place where it is cheapest, where the amount given up is the least. Sometimes, it is cheapest to produce it yourself, and other times, it is cheapest to buy it.

Value is linked to price through the mechanism of exchange. When an economist observes an exchange, two important value functions are revealed: those of the buyer and seller. Just as the buyer reveals what he is willing to pay for a certain amount of a good, so too does the seller reveal what it costs him to give up the good.

Additional information about value is obtained by the rate at which transactions occur, telling observers the extent to which the purchase of the good has value over time.

Said another way, value is how much a desired object or condition is worth relative to other objects or conditions. Economic values are expressed as "how much" of one desirable condition or commodity will, or would be given up in exchange for some other desired condition or commodity. Among the competing schools of economic theory there are differing metrics for value assessment and the metrics are the subject of a "Theory of Value". Value theories are a large part of the differences and disagreements between the various schools of economic theory.

That should keep "Cassini" quiet for a week or two.

Blog of the Day :- http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/

Saturday Value continued....

Cassini who writes an excellent blog and is a top man made the following comment on the "value debate".

Very hard for me to accept your challenge John given that I (almost) never bet pre-off. The value I find is in the fast moving, high(ish) liquidity in-play events, with basketball and American Football being far and away the most lucrative. Baseball is good too, but a little slow and often illiquid for my taste. I can e-mail you a screenshot of my p&L for the last three months if that would convince you?

The interesting comment is that Cassini admits that he very rarely bets before the event. This is fairly sensible. When most people talk about "VALUE", they are talking about betting before the event.

Once you go in-running the equation changes. Of course there are times when you can see "VALUE". People trying to close down positions and offering silly odds. By all means take advantage, but the general way for in-running traders to perform is to nick a bit of in-running value and then sell it back for a slight/small/large profit. No problem with that but "VALUE" is not the be all and end all that "VALUE MERCHANTS" would maintain. And anyone who maintains they can spot "VALUE" before the event is having a laugh. Would be tipsters and part time bloggers maintain "WILLY WONKER" is over-priced, or "THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY" should be laid at any price are fooling themselves and hopefully not too many other people.

To join my subscription service call 0800-ono-not-another-tippingline.

Another blast from the past:- 27/09/06.

Oh dear. Went to an Irish funeral in London yesterday. My Auntie Tess passed away aged 88 on 9/11/06. A few drinks were had, and a few more on the way home. I stopped in my local for a quick one, which turned into a quick few more. My head this morning is not feeling that good. I generally disapprove of "the hair of the dog", but this lunchtime, one may be required. Oh dear. Never again.

Back to the gambling. I've had a couple of questions, which I will attempt to answer. The first is "How much have I made this year?", The quick answer is over 30 grand. I hope that will suffice for now. The second question is "How much have I made since I first started gambling". Well, since Betfair came along about 5 years ago, I am probably up about 100 grand. Before that I was a betting shop punter. Lets say I lost about a grand a year over 25 years, which I probably did. Thats 25 grand down. If we subtract 25 from 100 thats 75. So overall I am probably 75 grand up. Not bad. its not really relevant though. The relevant fact is before betfair, I was a loser. Since betfair I am a winner. Even more relevant this year I am 30 grand up, which I am sure most people would agree is a reasonable living. It's not like I'm going down a coal mine, or working 60 hours a week. I just sit in front of my laptop, and watch a lot of sport on TV. Not everyone's idea of fun, but it will do for me.

Another question asked "How much do I need to earn to make it worthwhile". In my case, anything over a grand a month makes it a viable option. Any more is a very welcome bonus.

Biggest mistake I've made in Gambling? "Last October". I got into a cycle of making money, celebrating a bit too much, losing money, making money, celebrating a bit too much, losing money, etc.. I got so annoyed, I shut my account down, and took a break for the rest of the year. This blog charts my progress to date, since re-entering the fray at the start of the year.

I've got to go now, as I have a couple of jobs to do.

BTW I popped into Ladbrokes Sports Bar/ Casino at Paddington Station on the way home. I had a chat with the manager Gary. Nice bloke. Worth a visit in my opinion, but perhaps leave your credit cards at home. :-).

23rd July 2006.

Wide eyed and legless. Well not that bad, but a bit tired and emotional.

Landis won the Tour de France. i won about 100. Tiger as you probably know won "The Open". I won just under 3 grand. Very nice. Also good, as it was on my number two account, which needed a cash injection. It was great stuff all round. Tiger broke down as he sank the winning putt. His dad passed away a couple of moths ago, and genuine emotion flooded out, as he clinched the victory.

A couple of beers, and a BBQ, and all is right with the world, at least in this part of the planet.

More golf continues in the USA. John Rollins looks set to win, and I will make five pounds.

Tomorrow is a busy day. Lots of phone calls to make in connection with next Friday's house move. Some cricket on in the afternoon, but the plan is to go the gym about 6pm, so I will probably have a non-gambling day. See you all later. Sleep well or be lucky. :-).

More from that past :- 28/04/06.

Won 70 quid on the men's marathon, 50 on the grand prix, 200 on the tennis, and lost 50 on the football. Stuart Appleby won the golf in the US and I won a four figure sum, making up for the four figure sum that I lost on the tennis earlier in the week. Its been an up and down month but still a healthy profit. Need to get fit cut down on the alcohol intake and focus on making money. The Keep fit campaign starts on Monday.

Today.

I seem to have stirred up a hornets nest by questioning the concept of "value"?

Some people are very sensitive. Generally the ones that like tipping horses and then explaining it was badly drawn, the sand was kicked in it's face at Ascot, and Jupiter was out of alignment with Uranus. You do not make money gambling by guessing, and when you bet before the event, unless you are the owner, the trainer, the jockey or the horse you are guessing. Horses "btw" are not allowed to open Betfair accounts. Rumours that "Winker Watson" opened one earlier this year have been greatly exaggerated. I have it from a credible source that there was no way he was going to pay the "Premium Charge" and opened one with BETDAQ instead.

I will issue a challenge to the "VALUE" defenders. One. Give me a definition of "VALUE". You can probably do this quite easily by looking it up on WILKEPEDIA.

Two, let us see your "VALUE" bets before the event. Best price quoted on "ODDSCHECKER" or wherever, and the stake you suggest. Do it for a month, and even if you make a profit, I doubt if it will be enough to pay for your "Racing Post".

I think one of my fellow bloggers did something similar a couple of months ago. He then had to explain that it was his first losing month since the start of The First World War, and something funny must have been going on.

There is also a suggestion that I have something against "tipsters". WOW. Fancy that. "Tipsters" are generally low-life-scum. If they were so clever why don't they just back their selections themselves, rather than sell them to "mugs" for a couple of quid. Don't give me that nonsense that "I cannot get on ". We now have betting exchanges and bookies like "Chronicle" will take a 100K. "No, I would rather pass on my detailed specialised knowledge to the "general public" for 30 quid a month as I like to help people, and it helps supplement my student grant/JSA, and helps pay off my gambling debts".

Anyway, I wait to see if any of you bloggers/tipsters are brave enough to post your "VALUE" bets in advance, and honest enough to own up when you do your "NUTS".

More old stuff from the archives:- 28/03/06.

Spent the day watching the cricket. England lost the one day international against India. Australia beat South Africa in the second test. Then I went to the pub. Had a bit too much to drink. Came home and watched Callieri beat Kiefer in the tennis. Won over a monkey on the game. Watched Arsenal beat Juventus 2-0. Another good result for the betting bank. Finished off watching Federer beat Turgeonov, adding another 50 quid profit. Over a grand up on the day. Very pleasing. After a disastrous period in mid March when I wiped out half my profits for the year, I have somehow recovered and profits for the month now stand at 2.5K, leaving me over 10k up on the year. If I can cut out the bad periods when the show goes off the rails I could get quite good at this.

Another bad day at the office.

Talk a bout a bad hair day.

I went out for a quiet beer at lunchtime.

When I got home, I saw there were all these little green things crawling round the garden. At first I thought they were baby frogs - tadpoles even, but then I realised they were bloody little green venetians. I don't like thursdays anyway, but to get  home and find out you have been invaded by greenations  is slightly annoying. I thought "Phil Woolas" was going to get tough on passport control. No point if they can just land in your back garden.

So what then? it could only get worse. Had a quick scan round the village and realised they had taken over the village. I had by this time got rid of the little fellows. Bought a fire extinguisher the other day. Turned out it was flame thrower. Knew it would come in handy. I of course had no option at that point but to torch the rest of the village. 400 yard exclusion zone. If you live east of hill bottom, or West of Orchard Coombe, you may be OK, but other than that you are TOAST. Other than that I apologise, but what would you prefer? To arrive home and find out your house has been torched, or to be eaten alive by little green monsters. Your choice.

Anyhow Mrs. G. has just got home, so I have to pretend I am sensible. Bad news early. I know the Martians are on their way. We are all doomed. Have a nice day.